ProbCast scores every prediction-market move for the liquidity and trust behind it — so you can tell a genuine repricing from a thin-market blip.
Markets that moved with enough liquidity to matter
Moved up 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
63.9%
+7.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
77
Liquidity
90
Inspect moveVol $457.5K · Liq $417.5K · Ends Oct 4, 2026
Moved down 7.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
36.5%
-7.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
78
Liquidity
88
Inspect moveVol $456.8K · Liq $357.5K · Ends Oct 4, 2026
Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
33.5%
+2.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
61
Liquidity
82
Inspect moveVol $75.1K · Liq $291K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
15.5%
-11.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
63
Liquidity
80
Inspect moveVol $62.2K · Liq $114K · Ends Dec 31, 2027
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
16.5%
-11.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
63
Liquidity
81
Inspect moveVol $183.4K · Liq $94.4K · Ends Dec 31, 2027
Moved down 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
19.5%
-9.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
55
Liquidity
78
Inspect moveVol $71.4K · Liq $71.2K · Ends Dec 31, 2027
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
36.5%
+3.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
42
Liquidity
86
Inspect moveVol $189K · Liq $391.8K · Ends Oct 27, 2026
Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
35.5%
-3.0 ptsTrust
Medium
Movement
46
Liquidity
83
Inspect moveVol $99.6K · Liq $268.7K · Ends Nov 3, 2026
Big odds moves with weak liquidity, stale prices, or wide spreads
Moved up 12.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
21.0%
+12.5 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
99
Liquidity
40
Inspect moveVol $334.3 · Liq $0 · Ends Nov 10, 2026
Moved down 21.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
45.5%
-21.5 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
98
Liquidity
78
Inspect moveVol $34.9K · Liq $74.9K · Ends Oct 4, 2026
Moved down 37.3 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
36.6%
-37.3 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
96
Liquidity
50
Inspect moveVol Ṁ83.3 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Nov 1, 2026
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
47.0%
+5.0 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
95
Liquidity
54
Inspect moveVol $8.1K · Liq $0 · Ends Oct 14, 2026
Moved down 32.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
12.1%
-32.9 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
95
Liquidity
52
Inspect moveVol Ṁ167 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 31, 2026
Moved down 33.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
15.0%
-33.0 ptsTrust
Low
Movement
95
Liquidity
51
Inspect moveVol Ṁ136 · Liq Ṁ100 · Ends Dec 30, 2026
Notable moves with context, scored for trust
Aggregate movement and direction by sector
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