PolymarketConfirmed move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
62.5%
+21.0 ptsMedium Trust · 60
Deep liquidityTight spread
Moving fast
Inspect moveLiq $37.1K
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ProbCast scores every prediction-market move for the liquidity and trust behind it — so you can tell a genuine repricing from a thin-market blip.
Markets that moved with enough liquidity to matter
62.5%
+21.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $37.1K
75.5%
+16.5 ptsInspect moveLiq $43K
76.5%
+11.5 ptsInspect moveLiq $51.9K
48.5%
+6.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $380.2K
81.5%
+11.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $67.7K
65.5%
+9.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $51.9K
87.5%
+12.5 ptsInspect moveLiq $40.8K
17.5%
-4.0 ptsInspect moveLiq $998.3K
Big odds moves with weak liquidity, stale prices, or wide spreads
94.9%
+67.2 ptsInspect moveLiq Ṁ100
84.1%
+34.1 ptsInspect moveLiq Ṁ100
36.0%
-23.0 ptsInspect moveLiq Ṁ100
67.8%
+17.8 ptsInspect moveLiq Ṁ1K
65.5%
-21.5 ptsInspect moveLiq $0
58.5%
+13.8 ptsInspect moveLiq Ṁ1K
Notable moves with context, scored for trust
This market moved +27 percentage points in 1h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved +27 percentage points in 6h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
This market moved +27 percentage points in 24h. Liquidity is weak, so ProbCast classifies this as a noisy move.
Aggregate movement and direction by sector
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